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Game Forum / PlayStation / PlayStation / July 2006Next-gen Disc Format War Only In The Press - Fox President Dunn
http://homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=9457 M. Dunn (President of Fox Worldwide Entertainment ) HMR: How does Blu-ray fit in a download world? Without a unified format, is there a possibility Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD could become the next UMD? Dunn: First of all, the format war is really only going on in the press. Come the late fourth quarter, starting in November, Blu-ray is going to be showing huge numbers. The early adopter is going Blu-ray, and I think it will be readily apparent to that crucial second tier of consumers that Blu-ray is the obvious choice. It really is an easy argument to make. Right from the start, Blu-ray is going to be in consoles, computers and video games. You've got 170 companies involved, many of which are among the most trusted consumer brands, along with every major motion picture company but one. The penetration of Blu-ray is going to be in the millions of households by early 2007, compared to less than 100,000 households for HD DVD. And, it will penetrate faster than DVD did - going from zero to 10 million households like a rocket. Once the delta between the two formats begins to widen like that early on, it becomes a Blu-ray no-brainer for the consumer. As for digital downloading, it is at its very beginning stages. There is a long way to go before the download world leaks into the DVD business. That, too, is going to be an issue in the press but not in the marketplace. I think packaged media is pretty safe for the next 10 years. > Dunn: First of all, the format war is really only going on in the > press. The AVS forum is falling over themselves laughing at this guy. > Dunn: First of all, the format war is really only going on in the > press. Come the late fourth quarter, starting in November, Blu-ray is > going to be showing huge numbers. The early adopter is going Blu-ray, > and I think it will be readily apparent to that crucial second tier of > consumers that Blu-ray is the obvious choice. http://www.filmfodder.com/dvd/archives/2006/07/the_worlds_firs.shtml The World's First Blu-ray Player is Defective So what happens when, in a state of geek semi-madness, you rush out to the store to lay down $1000 large so you can be the first person on your block hailed as "Thy Coveted Blu-ray Early Adopter?" You arrive home, vibrating with glee, the new Samsung BD-P1000 cradled in your arms as if you were carrying The Lost Ark itself. You finally get the thing hooked up to your ginormous HDTV and fire up "Terminator," ready for some hi-res progressive-scan glory and -- Wait. That seems a bit odd. It looks kind of fuzzy, not high-def quality at all. In fact, it barely looks better than the modern DVD picture! We have to laugh. We really do. How else will the industry shoot itself in the foot over this next-gen stuff? According to I4U News (but the shot is being heard 'round the blogosphere), the Samsung BD-P1000 has an "incorrect setting in the noise reduction chip, which has caused softness in video playback in a good chunk of the retail units." The punchline: Samsung will not be releasing a firmware update to fix the issue until September! > http://homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=9457 "HMR: How does Blu-ray fit in a download world? Without a unified format, is there a possibility Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD could become the next UMD? Dunn: First of all, the format war is really only going on in the press. Come the late fourth quarter, starting in November, Blu-ray is going to be showing huge numbers. The early adopter is going Blu-ray, and I think it will be readily apparent to that crucial second tier of consumers that Blu-ray is the obvious choice. It really is an easy argument to make. Right from the start, Blu-ray is going to be in consoles, computers and video games. You've got 170 companies involved, many of which are among the most trusted consumer brands, along with every major motion picture company but one. The penetration of Blu-ray is going to be in the millions of households by early 2007, compared to less than 100,000 households for HD DVD. And, it will penetrate faster than DVD did - going from zero to 10 million households like a rocket. Once the delta between the two formats begins to widen like that early on, it becomes a Blu-ray no-brainer for the consumer. As for digital downloading, it is at its very beginning stages. There is a long way to go before the download world leaks into the DVD business. That, too, is going to be an issue in the press but not in the marketplace. I think packaged media is pretty safe for the next 10 years." is this guy living in a fairy tale world? only 100,000 households for hd-dvd by 2007? toshiba can't make the players fast enough to meet demand. and don't forget the prime thorn in blig merk's side: microsoft. my guess is that microsoft will sell more hddvd expansions than sony will sell ps3s this coming holiday season. there is no possible way that blueray will penetrate faster than dvd did. not going to happen. the only thing that bolsters that argument is that dvd was out long before the ps2 drove it into the market. blueray is, basically, coming with the ps3. there still isn't any evidence that ANY working bd players will be out before the ps3 release. my guess is that microsoft will sell more hddvd expansions than sony will sell ps3s this coming holiday season. there is no possible way that blueray will penetrate faster than dvd did. not going to happen. the only thing that bolsters that argument is that dvd was out long before the ps2 drove it into the market. blueray is, basically, coming with the ps3. there still isn't any evidence that ANY working bd players will be out before the ps3 release. Huh???? Unless we've reverted to some strange calendar, September is before November. Samsung's blu-ray player is out now and while it's badly screwed up, the firmware fix available for download to current owners will be out in September, which is before November. After installation of the firmware fix by their owners, the Samsung blu-ray player will play exactly as it's supposed to. Samsung also will be selling new players with the Genesis chip on the proper setting so they won't require the firmware fix even before PS3 is out. They're fixing that in their manufacturing process right now. Even if they're priced at $200 a pop (and IMO there's no way it'll be even close to that cheap), there's no way Microsoft is going to sell more HD-DVD drives than PS3 consoles. The same problems that exist with HD-DVD adoption exist with blu-ray, except that Sony's got the advantage of the console also playing video games. The Microsoft HD-DVD drive won't, and never will according to Microsoft, play games. I watch TV shows on DVD mostly and those can't be put on HD-DVD or blu-ray without looking like sh.t because after the mid to late 60's they were shot on video, not film and video doesn't convert nearly as well into HD as film stock does. Any TV shows from the 60s through the 90s that are put on HD-DVD or blu-ray will end up being shown in standard definition with the only reason they're on HD-DVD or blu-ray being that the studio wants to pack the disk with extras or consolidate an entire season of a show on 1-2 disks. So there's really not much incentive for me to get an HD-DVD drive because it won't play 360 games. I think the HD-DVD drive will sell ok this holiday season, but it's not like everybody who has a 360 also has an HDTV, I'd be surprised if it's even as high as 25% of 360 owners have an HDTV. So they don't have a built in user base of every 360 owner able to use the drive. The majority of 360 owners are still not going to be interested in the HD-DVD drive, just like the majority of PS3 owners wouldn't be interested in a blu-ray player if it wasn't included in the console. The majority of both groups of console owners will still be playing their games on standard definition TVs for another couple years at least. Microsoft isn't going to sell 2 million HD-DVD drives at launch like Sony is aiming to ship for the PS3 launch, nevermind the entire holiday season. Toshiba (and Samsung's) players are selling well now because of early adopters and technophiles that absolutely have to get something when it comes out. I'm really not convinced these players will be selling nearly this well in a year when all of the early adopters have one already and they're probably still nearly as costly as they are now. > Huh???? Unless we've reverted to some strange calendar, September is > before November. Samsung's blu-ray player is out now and while it's badly > screwed up, the firmware fix available for download to current owners will > be out in September, which is before November. After installation of the > firmware fix by their owners, the Samsung blu-ray player will play exactly > as it's supposed to. First off, people weren't buying the player in droves in the first place, once news of the defect broke the sales dropped precipitously and it's cast a shadow on the Blu-Ray format as a whole. Prior to the PS3 launch Blu-Ray sales may as well be 0. > Even if they're priced at $200 a pop (and IMO there's no way it'll be > even close to that cheap), there's no way Microsoft is going to sell more > HD-DVD drives than PS3 consoles. I would love to see it at $200, but I doubt it as well. It would also be nice if it, as a USB device, could be used on PCs and Macs as well. If that's the case then Microsoft will sell as many as they can make. The big question is how many consoles is Sony going to be able to have ready? They want 2 million, but that's total for 3 regions. Since Sony is fairly Japanese-centric I wouldn't be surprised to see Japan with 800,000 to 1,000,000 consoles and the U.S. and Europe splitting the remaining 1 to 1.2 million units. It wouldn't surprise me at all for Sony to send only 500k to 600k units for the North American launch in which case the number of HD-DVD drives will easily outstrip them. > The same problems that exist with HD-DVD > adoption exist with blu-ray, except that Sony's got the advantage of the > console also playing video games. The Microsoft HD-DVD drive won't, and > never will according to Microsoft, play games. The thing is that normal DVDs haven't been exhausted for HD games yet. There's no need to put them on HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. Sony would like to have all games on the Blu-Ray format so they can push the format and (hopefully) cut piracy but it has nothing to do with delivering HD games. > Any TV shows from the 60s through the 90s that are put on HD-DVD or blu-ray will > end up being shown in standard definition with the only reason they're on > HD-DVD or blu-ray being that the studio wants to pack the disk with extras > or consolidate an entire season of a show on 1-2 disks. I would be happy with that... It would be cool to have an entire season of Babylon 5 on one disc instead of 8. > Toshiba (and Samsung's) players are selling well now because of early > adopters and technophiles that absolutely have to get something when it > comes out. I'm really not convinced these players will be selling nearly > this well in a year when all of the early adopters have one already and > they're probably still nearly as costly as they are now. Except for the "Samsung" part: http://www.dvd-intelligence.com/main_sections/news_archive/2003_free/77_br-sales.htm "HD DVD players are selling even better now given the poor reviews of Blu-ray," said Value Electronics president Robert Zohn. Of the twelve Blu-ray players the store received in stock, Zohn said it has sold only two, compared to backorders of over 2,000 units for Toshiba's first two HD DVD players the store has yet to fulfill, due to Toshiba currently unable to manufacture enough units to meet the continued demand. - Jordan First off, people weren't buying the player in droves in the first place, once news of the defect broke the sales dropped precipitously and it's cast a shadow on the Blu-Ray format as a whole. Prior to the PS3 launch Blu-Ray sales may as well be 0. My only point was to refute the earlier statement that there was no evidence that working blu-ray players would be available before the PS3 launch. That's absolutely not true. Not everybody returned their Samsung and abandoned blu-ray. Even in the AV forum poll discussed here earlier, IIRC, a good portion of those people returning the player said that they'd still consider the Sony blu-ray player so they're not abandoning the format, they just hated their broken player. At least some of those may re-purchase the Samsung player before the PS3 launch if they ship new players that operate correctly in September and October and can correct the PR disaster. They're obviously not doing as well as the Toshiba (and may never do that well) but blu-ray isn't starting from zero with the PS3 launch. >> Even if they're priced at $200 a pop (and IMO there's no way it'll be >> even close to that cheap), there's no way Microsoft is going to sell more [quoted text clipped - 12 lines] > for the North American launch in which case the number of HD-DVD drives > will easily outstrip them. In North America they might outstrip Sony. The rest of the world doesn't count?? That was my point, world wide, IMO Sony will out sell the Microsoft HD-DVD player this holiday season. If Microsoft does well with the HD-DVD launch in North America but gets killed in Japan and Europe by PS3, Bill Gates isn't going to be that happy because it still gives Sony a good start on cutting into the 360's lead world wide, and that's their goal, to be the top console world wide. Losing in Japan and other parts of Asia, and in Europe, still gives Sony a good portion of the market that I'm quite sure Gates wants, particularly because Microsoft spent money to get the 360 in additional markets. >> The same problems that exist with HD-DVD >> adoption exist with blu-ray, except that Sony's got the advantage of the [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > (hopefully) cut piracy but it has nothing to do with delivering HD > games. I agree, Sony's inclusion of blu-ray is to push the format and, really, nothing else. But my point was that if you get a PS3, you're getting a blu-ray player because Sony said so. They don't have to worry about if a consumer interested in a PS3 wants blu-ray, they've made the decision for them. With Microsoft's HD-DVD player, you've got to go out and get it as an add-on and make the decision beforehand you actually *want* one and have the HDTV to use it. Because it only plays movies, if you're not interested in the content available or aren't able to view it because you don't have an HDTV, you're not going to get it. That's an advantage for Sony in getting blu-ray into homes that Microsoft doesn't have. Sony's strategy is once they get it into your home, you'll eventually decide you want to try this blu-ray movie thing and even get an HDTV to do it if you don't already have one. It really is sneaky marketing by Sony, and it might work. The idea is to get something into somebody's hands and once there they'll decide they want to use it because it's already there anyway. Plus, I'm sure once the PS3 is released, the hype machines from Sony and other companies backing blu-ray will do everything they can to convince people they want to switch from DVD and that it's so much better it's worth dropping the extra bones on an HDTV. >> Any TV shows from the 60s through the 90s that are put on HD-DVD or >> blu-ray will [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > I would be happy with that... It would be cool to have an entire season > of Babylon 5 on one disc instead of 8. Why though? Why pay more just to save some space when the actual show isn't presented any differently than on those 8 DVDs? The reason I bought a HDTV is because it's a better presentation than standard definition TV. Of course I'm one of the ones that also doesn't get a movie or TV show release with any eye at all towards the extras. If they're there it's ok with me, and I might watch them, but as long as the actual shows are presented well, that's what I'm looking for. Same thing with "collectors editions" like Madden HOF. Since there's no actual difference in game play and there's no game play extras offered, I'm not getting it. > In North America they might outstrip Sony. The rest of the world doesn't > count?? That was my point, world wide, IMO Sony will out sell the Microsoft [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > Gates wants, particularly because Microsoft spent money to get the 360 in > additional markets. Well there's no doubt that Microsoft can't catch them in Japan, but I still predict that the Wii is going to surprise everyone. The real battle there is going to be between the Wii and the PS3 and I still predict the hands down winner will be the Wii. http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3403&Itemid=2 Here's what Japanese gamers said are the consoles they're most interested in buying: 73.6%: Wii 16.7%: PS3 9.7%: neither Of Japanese retailers, here are the consoles they find most appealing: 65.9%: Wii 18.8%: neither 15.3%: PS3 Below are Japanese game maker's interest in the PS3 and Wii. 69.7%: Wii 27.3%: PS3 3%: neither Before Famitsu ran this survey I posted my prediction of the market breakdown: Japan (16% of market): Wii - 75% PS3 - 25% 360 - Less than 1% North America (50% of market): 360 - 48% Wii - 30% PS3 - 22% Europe (34% of market): 360 - 45% Wii - 35% PS3 - 20% It's possible you could even flip the numbers for 360 and Wii in North America and Europe. I think Wii is going to be surprisingly popular. > > I would be happy with that... It would be cool to have an entire season > > of Babylon 5 on one disc instead of 8. > > Why though? Why pay more just to save some space when the actual show isn't > presented any differently than on those 8 DVDs? Well, space for one. I'm running out of room for all these boxed sets. :^) Plus there are some of us who would rather plop down and not move for 24 hours without having to change discs. :^) - Jordan Blig Merk <blig_murk@yahoo.com> spake thusly: > Dunn: First of all, since my studio is backing Blu-ray, anything I say on > the matter carries about as much impartiality as Sony saying the PS3 will > be a huge success. Fixed his post. -Z- > http://homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=9457 > [quoted text clipped - 26 lines] > the marketplace. I think packaged media is pretty safe for the next 10 > years. I so disagree with this guy, there is a huge difference between the leap from VHS to DVD and the leap from DVD to Blueray or HDDVD, people are not going to 'flock' to buy neither of those, as more than 90% of households don't have HDTVs so they won't see any difference in quality. Sure slowly more and more houses are getting an HDTV, but it's still some time before there is any 'flocking'. > http://homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=9457 > [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > the marketplace. I think packaged media is pretty safe for the next 10 > years. What was it Bill Gates thought of the internet??? I think this guy is underestimating the capacity for downloaded video to grow. Downloading music has grown exponentially, and with everyone and their granny getting broadband, downloading movies is not that far away..... Gaz > And, > it will penetrate faster than DVD did - going from zero to 10 million > households like a rocket. I have no idea who he is or what he does; but with that single statement the guy loses all credibility. Nobody could possibly come up with a logical argument to how or why Blue Ray would penetrate faster than DVD. DVD's were essentially replacing a 21 year old technology; BR is replacing a 9 year old technology. DVD's had no rival format to compete with; BR has HD-DVD. DVD's improvement over the previous technology was incredible. BR is nowhere near that level of improvement from DVD. DVD's implemented functional improvements over the previous technology. BR offers no functional improvement over the previous technology. DVD's offer a better form factor than the previous generation. BR offers no form factor improvement. DVD's quality difference could be instantly noticed on nearly every TV currently in use. BR improvement will only be noticed on a small fraction of the TV's currently in use. I believe that Blu Ray does have the advantage right now; and will most likely eventually win this format war; but there is no way that it is going to be as successful as quickly as DVD's were. |
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