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Game Forum / Role Playing Games / Diablo / December 2005Huh? WTF? Ye gods
Ok, I JUST had something happen which I did not know was even possible. I was doing some key runs, and the second game I did the countess, who gave no key but did spit up an AMN, SOL and HEL rune, and then I did the Summoner. Firstly, he went down about 3 times faster than he usually does, and he dropped ONLY 2 items...both of them a Key of Hate!!!! Does this mean that there is a chance that EACH OF his drops is a key, or is this some sort of massive statistical anomaly? Mickey > Ok, I JUST had something happen which I did not know was even possible. I > was doing some key runs, and the second game I did the countess, who gave [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > Does this mean that there is a chance that EACH OF his drops is a key, or > is this some sort of massive statistical anomaly? And now, he just did it again. This is bizarre, as up until now, my collection of keys has been growing evenly, one Terror for each Hate. Now I have 12 Terror keys and 16 Hate keys. Mickey "Mickey" <XXmickeybXX@XXcomcastXX.net> wrote in message > "Mickey" <XXmickeybXX@XXcomcastXX.net> wrote in message > > Ok, I JUST had something happen which I did not know was even possible. I [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] > > Mickey I suspect the drop probabilities for 1.11 are WAAAAY screwed up. LOL  Signature-- EvilBill - http://www.evilbill.org.uk >> Ok, I JUST had something happen which I did not know was even >> possible. I was doing some key runs, and the second game I did the [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > collection of keys has been growing evenly, one Terror for each Hate. > Now I have 12 Terror keys and 16 Hate keys. Apparently it is possible for each of the 'key droppers' to drop up to three keys at once. I've had two twice. Signature~misfit~ >>> Ok, I JUST had something happen which I did not know was even >>> possible. I was doing some key runs, and the second game I did the [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] > Apparently it is possible for each of the 'key droppers' to drop up to > three keys at once. I've had two twice. But what are the odds the same one drops 2 keys twice in 3 games? Mickey > >>> Ok, I JUST had something happen which I did not know was even > >>> possible. I was doing some key runs, and the second game I did the [quoted text clipped - 15 lines] > > Mickey Of the three key droppers the summoner has the best odds of the three to drop a key. If I have time I'll get together with Caal and we'll calculate the porobaiblity of two keys from the summoner in 3 games (= 4 keys by a two frop, a zero drop, and a two drop) Orion >> >>> Ok, I JUST had something happen which I did not know was even >> >>> possible. I was doing some key runs, and the second game I did the [quoted text clipped - 19 lines] > Of the three key droppers the summoner has the best odds of the three > to drop a key. At this point, I would have to say that is simply NOT true. Dispite the fact that he has dropped 2 of them twice for me, I now have 18 of each, meaning teh Countess is dropping them JUST as fast as the Summoner. > If I have time I'll get together with Caal and we'll calculate the > porobaiblity of two keys from the summoner in 3 games (= 4 keys by a > two frop, a zero drop, and a two drop) I started to, and got a headache. I went and bought some lottery tickets instead. Mickey > >> >>> Ok, I JUST had something happen which I did not know was even > >> >>> possible. I was doing some key runs, and the second game I did the [quoted text clipped - 32 lines] > > Mickey Well I just ran into Caal. He saw the thread and put something together. I confirm his numbers as being correct. Odds on 3 visits (at players 1) to get 2 keys, then 0 keys, then 2 keys: 1 in 119,924 Not too shabby Mick. Congrats you big,... big,... big,... you big Mick you. See other reply to your other post for more info on your self-inflicted quest. Orion > Does this mean that there is a chance that EACH OF his drops is a key, or > is this some sort of massive statistical anomaly? It's not. I've seen a lot of people mention getting 2 keys(of all 3 sorts) from one run, I'm not gonna swear to it but I think Ash may have mentioned having it happen once as well. > Mickey >> Does this mean that there is a chance that EACH OF his drops is a key, or >> is this some sort of massive statistical anomaly? > > It's not. I've seen a lot of people mention getting 2 keys(of all 3 sorts) > from one run, I'm not gonna swear to it but I think Ash may have mentioned > having it happen once as well. Not an answer to the question though. The question is, if he can drop 2, can he drop 4? He can drop up to 4 items, an they ALL be keys, or is there a limit? As the Countess has dropped up to 4 items for me (not counting her rune drops), can she also drop 4 keys? Mickey > Not an answer to the question though. The question is, if he can drop 2, > can he drop 4? Theoretically, yes. The odds of THAT happening are slim, but it should be possible. > can she also drop 4 keys? Theoretically yet. > Mickey >> Not an answer to the question though. The question is, if he can drop 2, >> can he drop 4? [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > > Theoretically yet. Well now I have a mission in life then. I will get that 4 key drop, no matter how long it takes. Mickey (continuation of previous post with an added note that Caal saw the thread and went ahead and put some numbers up, and I confirm them) Well start today Mick because the odds of getting 4 keys in one drop (at players 1) are: 1 in 2,002,661 Nothing like the 1 in 24.5 billion of mepf dropping 2 UMs. (snicker) You greatly increase the odds by playing at higher players, that is if you can find others that will be as enthusiastic as you. Godspeed Mick. Orion > (continuation of previous post with an added note that Caal saw the > thread and went ahead and put some numbers up, and I confirm them) [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > > 1 in 2,002,661 Well, given that in 1.08, I got Baal to drop Shaefer's Hammer, Windforce and a ZOD in one drop, that ain't all that bad. After all, I play the lotto, and the odds of hitting that are 14,500,000-1 and yet someone hits it nearly every week :) > Nothing like the 1 in 24.5 billion of mepf dropping 2 UMs. (snicker) And yet..... > You greatly increase the odds by playing at higher players, that is if > you can find others that will be as enthusiastic as you. I do sometimes. I join Baal runs and while someone is hiking down to the throne room, I get either the Countess, the Summoner or both. > Godspeed Mick. Gracias, Senor Mickey Hah hah Mick, of course someone wins the lotto because millions of tickets are sold, moe than the 14.5 million. If 2,000,000 people did a Summoner run a day, chances are you are going to see a 4 key drop a couple of times each week; or if 10,000 people did 200 runs a day. Nice drop from Baal. I'll have to see if Caal would like to get together and calculate the odds on that one with me. Was it non-quest at players 1? As for joining Baal runs, yeah that helps a lot. I used to do that in HC to grab more XP in some quick runs to lower areas while the pack was doing their job in the WSK and throne. I leveled a zon once in hell jumping into trade games with 4 or 5 players just sending her on Eldritch runs. Now if you get a 4 drop with other players, don't you feel that you'd just have to be compulsive enough to try and get it at players 1? Happy New Year Mick!!! Now there is a universal holiday, somewhat enforced by a calendar constructed by a pope (did i get that right?) You know something, when I went to Catholic Church when I was young and I read in the missile what New Year Day is supposed signify for the baby Jesus, I said "Ouch!!" Cheers Orion > Hah hah Mick, of course someone wins the lotto because millions of > tickets are sold, moe than the 14.5 million. If 2,000,000 people did a [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > together and calculate the odds on that one with me. Was it non-quest > at players 1? Yes. > As for joining Baal runs, yeah that helps a lot. I used to do that in > HC to grab more XP in some quick runs to lower areas while the pack was > doing their job in the WSK and throne. I leveled a zon once in hell > jumping into trade games with 4 or 5 players just sending her on > Eldritch runs. That's how I power level mercs. I join a Baal game, rin to the Flayer Jungle and activate as many monsters as I can, and then take my time killing them off. > Now if you get a 4 drop with other players, don't you feel that you'd > just have to be compulsive enough to try and get it at players 1? Nah, I'm crazy, just not THAT crazy. > Happy New Year Mick!!! Now there is a universal holiday, somewhat > enforced by a calendar constructed by a pope (did i get that right?) > > You know something, when I went to Catholic Church when I was young and > I read in the missile what New Year Day is supposed signify for the > baby Jesus, I said "Ouch!!" Happy New Year to you and yours as well :) Mickey After going to <http://tinyurl.com/2tnqw> >"Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message >news:1135864063.272299.149050@z14g2000cwz.googlegroups.com... [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > >Nah, I'm crazy, just not THAT crazy. That reminds me of something I say sometimes: "I might be dumb, but I'm not stupid" ;-] -- no, i didn't forget the 'F's http://www.geocities.com/jerk_o2002 http://www.geocities.com/nameless_mod -My Diablo 2 Mod http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/bunny.php -My theme song > After going to <http://tinyurl.com/2tnqw> > >"Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > That reminds me of something I say sometimes: "I might be dumb, but I'm not > stupid" ;-] I just tell everybody, "I'm not as dumb as I look, I'm dumber." wizofwas "Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message > Happy New Year Mick!!! Now there is a universal holiday, somewhat > enforced by a calendar constructed by a pope (did i get that right?) Nope, not every culture on Earth adheres to the Christian calendar or January 1st as New Year ;) *runs!* Signature-- "I hope you don't object to my badgering the witless!" EvilBill - http://www.evilbill.org.uk yahoo: evilbill_agqx > "Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message >> Happy New Year Mick!!! Now there is a universal holiday, somewhat [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > January 1st as New Year ;) > *runs!* We Jews have a pair of calendar's to keep :) Mickey |
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