While the Playstation 3 boasts a lot of power and impressive specs,
mainstream America will not pay $600.00 for a home videogame system. If
you don't believe me, just ask Trip Hawkins or SNK.

Both the 3DO & SNK Neo-Geo systems were powerful home systems. Both
systems were also overpriced with a suggested retail price of $600.00.
And neither one of them set the world on fire or found mainstream
success.

The PS3 (like the 3DO & Neo Geo) will have early adopters who create
impressive initial sales numbers for Sony. However, those sales will
fall briskly as Sony is surpassed by both Microsoft and Nintendo.

Sony will finally know what it's like to be firmly in 3rd place.

Of course the PS3 will sell more units than either the 3DO or Neo Geo
did in their day. Sony has the advantage of name recognition and
die-hard loyal fans.

Consumers will ultimately decide the fate of the PS3. Why buy an all
powerful home system for $600.00 when you can purchase a game machine
from Nintendo or Microsoft for  $200.00 - $400.00?

Most mainstream Americans just want to play games. They don't need an
all in one system which runs their lives.

The 3DO was supposed to change the world. It was supposed to be the
all-in-one set top box which would revolutionize home entertainment. It
was supposed to play movies (VCDs) and have all sorts of upgrades and
expansions. Does this sound familiar? It should. Sony's PS3 business
plan virtually mirrors the business plan set forth by Trip Hawkins for
the 3DO in the 1990's.

The SNK Neo-Geo was just an overpriced game machine. It was the rich
man's system. The $600.00 home system with $200.00 games. It offered a
true arcade experience at home. The AES never experienced mainstream
success because it was overpriced. At least SNK was honest and focused
on what they do best: Make Games. Unlike Sony & 3DO who tried to make a
set-top box which does it all.

I believe that Sony is going to fail this time. The PS3 will have
moderate success (Think Dreamcast) but will not surpass PS1 or PS2
hardware sales numbers. And I firmly believe that the PS3 will not be
the #1 next generation platform.

Before you accuse me of being a Microsoft or Nintendo fan-boy, let me
tell you that I currently own a PS2 and about 25 games. I also own tons
of PS1 games and purchased the PS1 on launch day. I was really looking
forward to the PS3 until they released the price and system details. I
don't need an all-in-one device. I just want to play great games.

I am now looking at the Nintendo Wii & X-Box 360 as possible purchases.
Nintendo is focusing on what they do best: Make great games (and
controllers). Nintendo doesn't have the money that Sony & Microsoft do
so they are working hard to re-invent the industry with new innovations.
If the DS games are any indication of the future of Wii, Where do I sign
up?

I could be wrong, but this is how I see the future of Next-Generation
gaming:

1.) Nintendo Wii
2.) X-Box 360
3.) PS3

What do you think???